San Francisco Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis
Prepared for the City and County of San Francisco Office of Early Care and Education in 2016
The San Francisco Office of Early Care and Education (OECE), in collaboration with its early childhood partners, engaged in a comprehensive fiscal analysis (CFA) from September 2015 to February 2016. The goals of the CFA were to determine (1) what funding currently supports early care and education services in San Francisco, (2) how these funds are used, and (3) what opportunities exist to draw down additional funding and/or to use funds more effectively. Through extensive research, the team cataloged all funding sources, built detailed revenue-and-expense models for both centers and family child care homes, and developed layered child financing profiles and system‑level comparisons with Chicago, New York City, and Seattle.
Findings revealed structural challenges: for most center scenarios (39 out of 48), expenses at quality Tier 3 exceeded revenues, especially when serving low-income families via state-subsidized contracts. Family child care homes fared slightly better financially, but even the best-case profiles often yielded only modest hourly earnings.
To address these challenges, the CFA proposed three core recommendations:
Restructure the local financing system
Implement system-wide accountability for access to quality for young children and families.
Strengthen system supports, such as quality improvement and system-level coordination.