Leading Through Uncertainty
How Local and State Education Leaders Can Respond
As a consulting firm with decades of experience working alongside school districts, we were recently struck by a call from one of our long-standing clients. Despite serving a more affluent community and typically being insulated from budget pressures, they find themselves needing guidance on how to right-size their budget in a time of stalled state funding and declining enrollment.
This experience reinforced what we are seeing across the country: districts of all types are facing new challenges as they navigate an era of heightened uncertainty and high-stakes decision-making. Budgeting and staffing decisions that were already complex now involve more challenges and unknowns. Temporary federal COVID relief funds have expired while districts in many states are grappling with rising costs, evolving student needs, and declining public trust. At the same time, demographic shifts, policy changes, and political tensions continue to reshape the broader educational landscape - often in uneven and unpredictable ways. In this environment of ongoing uncertainty and change, district leaders must act strategically to meet the needs of their communities.
A Changing Education Landscape
Key drivers of uncertainty include demographic shifts, declining federal funding, a volatile economy, and increasing political polarization. Some of today’s uncertainty arises from recent changes in federal policy. Major shifts in the role and funding of the U.S. Department of Education have disrupted the traditional flow of resources and guidance to local education agencies. Other challenges - such as demographic changes and declining enrollment - have impacted the way education leaders make decisions for more than a decade. However, recent developments, including the expiration of pandemic-era relief funds and the expansion of voucher programs, have left many school districts bracing for bigger budget shortfalls as students’ needs grow.
These challenges affect districts unevenly. Where some face school closures and consolidation due to declining enrollment, others grapple with rapid growth and overcrowding. Addressing these pressures requires district leaders to take a proactive approach in navigating uncertainty.
Strategic Moves Leaders Can Make Now
Local leaders can leverage the changing education landscape as an opportunity to make strategic decisions that protect students, staff, and long-term stability. Potential actions include:
Meaningful stakeholder engagement
Financial analysis and strategic budgeting
Assessment of organization structure and efficiency
Through these recommended steps, education leaders can respond with clarity and confidence to minimize disruption, enhance efficiency, and ensure success under a variety of scenarios.
Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement
A key first step for district leaders is to convene internal and external stakeholders in thoughtful conversations that acknowledge current uncertainties and outline the organization’s plan to prepare, navigate, and respond. Stakeholder engagement is essential to maintaining public support through tumultuous times, particularly as districts reshape their education systems, engage in strategic planning, or consider shifts in policy. Districts can establish public trust and gain diverse perspectives from stakeholder engagement activities such as town halls, listening sessions, focus groups, and surveys. These perspectives provide education leaders with the feedback needed to inform their decision-making processes in a way that is inclusive, actionable, and aligned with long-term goals.
Financial Analysis and Strategic Budgeting
Local education leaders must pair detailed fiscal analysis with system-level policy thinking to understand how funding moves through systems, how systems can be redesigned to better serve students, and how existing practices can be adapted to ensure sustainable and equitable implementation. This includes examining expenditures in conjunction with strategic plans, enrollment projections, and multi-year funding scenarios to ensure that resources are aligned with both current and anticipated student needs.
Leaders can adopt or enhance strategic budget practices. The Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) recommends that districts develop a strategic financial plan by identifying district fiscal and achievement goals, examining current spending and reprioritizing resources to meet identified goals, and establishing a monitoring and evaluation process.
Leaders can also leverage adaptive financial models to explore different scenarios and understand the effect of changing conditions, such as declining enrollment and reduced funding, on staffing or programming. These models go beyond forecasting; they serve as decision-making and communication tools that help leaders assess and understand potential scenarios, communicate transparently with all stakeholders about current challenges, and plan with confidence.
Assessment of Organizational Structure and Efficiency
Challenges can also create opportunities for districts to streamline operations and to shed historical approaches that are no longer efficient. Districts can evaluate organizational structure and staffing to identify areas for potential improvements in service delivery and opportunities for cost containment. This can include internally focused efforts, such as (1) reviewing district organizational structure and streamlining administration staffing where possible, (2) assessing current school boundaries, enrollment zones, and the best use of facilities in relation to changing district enrollment patterns, and (3) evaluating staffing patterns and prioritization districtwide to ensure equity and sustainability. It also can include externally focused efforts, such as evaluating opportunities for shared services and collaboration with neighboring districts in the areas of special education, gifted education, athletics, curriculum, professional development, and transportation. Financial, staffing, and enrollment modeling can be important tools to assess the impact of potential changes.
It is essential for leaders to have the best information possible available when making important, and often difficult, decisions during these uncertain times. As education leaders continue to navigate this ever-changing funding and policy landscape, APA Consulting is here to support school districts and local education programs as a strategic thought partner. Get in touch here - and in the meantime, follow us on LinkedIn for more.
Points of Contact
Amanda Brown, EdD, is Vice President at APA with over 20 years of experience in school finance and evaluation. She leads state and local efforts to strengthen funding systems, support reform, and guide districts in strategic resource use.
Dr. Brown can be reached via email at arb@apaconsulting.net.
Robert Reichardt, PhD, is a Senior Associate at APA with over 25 years of experience in education policy and program improvement. He blends deep expertise in evaluation and policy analysis with a commitment to equity and public service through his roles in local government and education leadership.
Dr. Reichardt can be reached via email at rer@apaconsulting.net.